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sunday, may 22, 2005

The Million and a Half Person Gap

Here’s a very interesting project led by Bennett Zimmerman, examining the population data for the Palestinian Authority and coming to a surprising conclusion that raises serious questions about the assumptions driving Israeli and US policies in the Middle East: PA Demographics - The Million and a Half Person Gap.

Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza

The assumption that Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza pose a demographic threat to Israel has to be radically revised. The 2004 Palestinian-Arab population was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by Palestinian Authority (PA) officials. These findings should have a significant impact on politicians, policy makers and international aid agencies.

The million-and-a-half person gap occurred because the PA numbers are based on Palestine Bureau of Statistics (PBS) 1997 projections, not on actual population counts. The PBS used the PA’s official 1997 census as a base population and assumed the population would grow at 4 to 5% a year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. PA Ministry of Health birth data and actual border entry/exit data, confirm that the PBS expectations were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004. There were dramatically fewer births and lower fertility rates, and instead of immigration, the West Bank and Gaza experienced a steady net emigration. When the PBS incorrect assumptions are applied over many years, the error in population forecast compounds exponentially.

Comments are open and unmoderated, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Little Green Footballs. Obscene, abusive, silly, or annoying remarks may be deleted, but the fact that particular comments remain on the site in no way constitutes an endorsement of their views by Little Green Footballs.

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#1 Norwegian kafir  5/22/2005 01:50PM PDT

Charles, you really should have a look at this front page by Japanese Newsweek:


#2 Cornholio  5/22/2005 01:52PM PDT

Let me guess: grants to the Palis are increased for an growing population. So the U.S. Government sends more of our tax money to the Pali terrorists.


#3 Carl in Jerusalem  5/22/2005 01:53PM PDT

There was a debate about this in the JPost last week. I sent Charles the links at the time, but I don't have them anymore.


#4 TotallySirius  5/22/2005 01:54PM PDT

Simple greed,more balestinians=more aid money.


#5 Joshua (not a hamster) Scholar  5/22/2005 01:55PM PDT

I theorized long ago that all numbers from Arab countries are lies from beginning to end. I had that epiphony listening to Clinton talking about UN statistics on Iraq - remember the millions of children who supposedly died because of sanctions? To the extent that ANY died it was because Saddamn wanted it that way (problems with unsanitary water can be solved by boiling for instance) - who would claim that Iraqis are incapable of boiling water?

Totalitarian countries aren't honest, ever.

Don't assume the new numbers have any basis in reality either.


#6 Amy  5/22/2005 01:56PM PDT

Maybe my mind isn't up to par today, but I don't get the point of this.

I presume that Zimmerman is saying that when you add the population of Israel to that of Jews on the West Bank and in Gaza, the Jews are a significant majority (60% minimum) in the area taken as a whole. Which means... what?

It doesn't change the world's mantra that the Pals should have a state of their own. As Jews know better than anyone, it's not a question of sheer numbers, but of self-determination.

What, then? What I fear is that the Arabs, if they accept these numbers (which is doubtful), will say that since the Arabs aren't really a demographic threat to Israel, there should be one state, which will have a Jewish majority. So everything will be hunky dory.


#7 Cornholio  5/22/2005 01:59PM PDT

#1 Norwegian kafir 5/22/2005

Charles, you really should have a look at this front page by Japanese Newsweek

I second that! The cover of Newsweek's Japan issue sports an American flag in a trash can. Newsweek should change its name to AlQuedaWeek.


#8 Gringo  5/22/2005 01:59PM PDT

1 Norwegian kafir
Charles, you really should have a look at this front page by Japanese Newsweek:


Unbelievable...the American people should see this, then there will be no doubt of newsweak's agenda and lies.


#9 JohnSteele  5/22/2005 02:00PM PDT

I suspect that underlying this is to undercut the opposition to the Palis demand for the 'right of return'. "Well there aren't as many of them as you thought so why do you refuse to let them return?"

Stay tuned for Part Deux of this, it ain't over by a long shot ...


#10 Norwegian kafir  5/22/2005 02:03PM PDT

Senate panel eyes Japan nuke option to press China on N. Korea test

U.S. policymakers should highlight Japan's possible nuclear pursuit and other security repercussions for China in pressing Beijing to stop North Korea from testing its nuclear weapons, a Senate Republican policy panel said in a recent report. ''A test in North Korea would certainly raise the prospect of a major public debate in Japan over whether to turn its latent nuclear capabilities in its civilian and space sectors into an overt nuclear weapons program,'' the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee said.


#11 secsailor  5/22/2005 02:07PM PDT

#1 Norwegian kafir

Charles, you really should have a look at this front page by Japanese Newsweek:

Wow! The media really are the enemy!


#12 Spiritualized  5/22/2005 02:10PM PDT

The 2004 Palestinian-Arab population was closer to 2.4 million than to the 3.8 million reported by Palestinian Authority (PA) officials.

It's amusing how "Palestinians" and their supporters claim that a genocide has been committed whilst simultaneously hoping Israel can be destroyed via demographics.


#13 yudmem1  5/22/2005 02:29PM PDT

The background of the "demographic threat" for the last 50 years or so is that high Arab birth rates were going to swamp the Jews in Israel.

In the late 1960s, after the Six Day Way, the "demographic threat" was a background to calls to withdraw from Judea/Samaria/Gaza.

The irony, though typical, is that the Arabs, and their allies believe their own lies. On the other hands, many may simply not know that their lies are indeed lies. And their allies are mostly of the arm chair variety, and simply don't care anyway.

A further irony is that, while in the past Israel might have been willing to absorb a large Arab population from Judea/Samaria/Gaza, on the basis of the mostly peaceful and loyal population of Israeli Arabs, the gross anti-Semitic propaganda that have flooded the PA since its establishment, and the barbarism of their war against Israel, and against Jews generally, must give serious pause to that concept, because of doubts about their loyalty (yes, I'm being polite).

In addition, while a country with a national minority in the range of 20-25 percent is going to behave in one way, behavior with a minority in the 40 percent range will be fundamentally different, as we have observed in the case of Lebanon in the last 60 years.


#14 Carl in Jerusalem  5/22/2005 02:31PM PDT

# 6 amy

It doesn't change the world's mantra that the Pals should have a state of their own. As Jews know better than anyone, it's not a question of sheer numbers, but of self-determination.

No, it doesn't change the world's mantra. But the way that 'Palestinian' statehood is being sold to Israeli Jews is "if we don't do it, we are going to be a minority in our own state by 20__." This study shows that sales pitch to be based on a lie.


#15 Haiku  5/22/2005 02:43PM PDT

When don't the Arabs lie? Now that would be news. The biggest Arab lie is that of a "Palestinian" people and nation that have never existed.


#16 Amy  5/22/2005 03:11PM PDT

Carl in Jerusalem #14 -

It was my impression that the "We'll be a minority in our own country" argument was based on what would happen if Israel annexed the West Bank and Gaza. Israel did not want sovereignty over that many Arabs.

If Israel does not incorporate these areas into Israel (and it will not), how would Jews become a minority in Israel?


#17 Amy  5/22/2005 03:13PM PDT

yudmem 1 #13 -

In addition, while a country with a national minority in the range of 20-25 percent is going to behave in one way, behavior with a minority in the 40 percent range will be fundamentally different, as we have observed in the case of Lebanon in the last 60 years.

Good point.


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